Crypto Prediction Market Expects Prop 26 and Prop 27 to Both Fail in California

A popular online crypto currency prediction market thinks Prop 26 and Prop 27 will both fail in California this November.

Polymarket, an information markets platform that lets users trade on topics such as elections, weather events, global matters, sports outcomes, and more, listed markets on the success of Prop 26 and Prop 27 on Tuesday.

As of the morning of Wednesday, Sept. 21, a no prediction for Prop 27 cost $0.69 and a yes prediction cost $0.31. The price for each began at $0.50 when the market opened. So this essentially means the market is suggesting a 69% probability of failure for Prop 27. The market is titled: Prop 27: Will California legalize online sports betting?

Things don’t look much better for Prop 26. As of the morning of Sept. 21, a no prediction for Prop 26 cost $0.64 and a yes prediction cost $0.36. So that would translate to a 64% probability of failure for Prop 26. The market is titled: Prop 26: Will California legalize sports betting on tribal lands?

Will Prop 26 or Prop 27 Pass?

These odds represent a growing sentiment that California sports betting becoming legal this November isn’t a sure thing. Especially online sports betting. Prop 27 would legalize online sports betting. In a recent poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, 54% of likely California voters said they plan to vote no on Prop 27.

The PPIC didn’t ask questions regarding Prop 26, which would legalize sports betting at Indian casinos and licensed California horse racetracks. But an August report from independent research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming gave both Prop 26 and Prop 27 a “less than 50% chance” of passing. The report cited an overwhelming amount of advertising and confusion between the two ballot measures as main reasons for potential failure.

And this is all bad news to hopeful California sports bettors, who overwhelmingly want both measures to pass. In an August survey conducted by California Casinos, 61% of the 600 respondents said they wanted both Prop 26 and Prop 27 to pass. Other interesting results: 60% prefer private companies run the sportsbooks over tribes, 49% favored Prop 27’s plan for revenue tax funds, and 32% favored Prop 26’s plan for revenue tax funds.

If you’re in the US, you can look at all the Polymarket crypto markets for fun. But it’s illegal to actually buy or sell shares of the online markets.